How to Actually Change Your Mind

This truth thing seems pretty handy. Why, then, do we keep jumping to conclusions, digging our heels in, and recapitulating the same mistakes? Why are we so bad at acquiring accurate beliefs, and how can we do better? These seven sequences discuss motivated reasoning and confirmation bias, with a special focus on hard-to-spot species of self-deception and the trap of “using arguments as soldiers.”

—Rob Bensinger,
Biases: An Introduction

☙

Rationality: An Introduction

☙

E
Overly Convenient Excuses

---

46. The Proper Use of Humility
47. The Third Alternative
48. Lotteries: A Waste of Hope
49. New Improved Lottery
50. But There’s Still a Chance, Right?
51. The Fallacy of Gray
52. Absolute Authority
53. How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
54. Infinite Certainty
55. 0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
56. Your Rationality Is My Business

☙

F
Politics and Rationality

---

57. Politics is the Mind-Killer
58. Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
59. The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality
60. Correspondence Bias
61. Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?
62. Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence
63. Argument Screens Off Authority
64. Hug the Query
65. Rationality and the English Language
66. Human Evil and Muddled Thinking

☙

G
Against Rationalization

---

67. Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People
68. Update Yourself Incrementally
69. One Argument Against An Army
70. The Bottom Line
71. What Evidence Filtered Evidence?
72. Rationalization
73. A Rational Argument
74. Avoiding Your Belief’s Real Weak Points
75. Motivated Stopping and Motivating Continuation
76. Fake Justification
77. Is That Your True Rejection?
78. Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies
79. Of Lies and Black Swan Blowups
80. Dark Side Epistemology

☙

H
Against Doublethink

---

81. Singlethink
82. Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased)
83. No, Really, I’ve Deceived Myself
84. Belief in Self-Deception
85. Moore’s Paradox
86. Don’t Believe You’ll Self-Deceive

☙

I
Seeing with Fresh Eyes

---

87. Anchoring and Adjustment
88. Priming and Contamination
89. Do We Believe Everything We’re Told?
90. Cached Thoughts
91. The “Outside the Box” Box
92. Original Seeing
93. Stranger than History
94. The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence
95. The Virtue of Narrowness
96. How to Seem (and Be) Deep
97. We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
98. Hold Off On Proposing Solutions
99. The Genetic Fallacy

☙

J
Death Spirals

---

100. The Affect Heuristic
101. Evaluability (and Cheap Holiday Shopping)
102. Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, and Futurism
103. The Halo Effect
104. Superhero Bias
105. Mere Messiahs
106. Affective Death Spirals
107. Resist the Happy Death Spiral
108. Uncritical Supercriticality
109. Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs
110. When None Dare Urge Restraint
111. The Robbers Cave Experiment
112. Every Cause Wants to Be a Cult
113. Guardians of the Truth
114. Guardians of the Gene Pool
115. Guardians of Ayn Rand
116. Two Cult Koans
117. Asch’s Conformity Experiment
118. On Expressing Your Concerns
119. Lonely Dissent
120. Cultish Countercultishness

☙

K
Letting Go

---

121. The Importance of Saying “Oops”
122. The Crackpot Offer
123. Just Lose Hope Already
124. The Proper Use of Doubt
125. You Can Face Reality
126. The Meditation on Curiosity
127. No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws
128. Leave a Line of Retreat
129. Crisis of Faith
130. The Ritual